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Inflation in May 2018

Headline Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), increased to 2.1 per cent in May 2018 from 1.6 per cent in April 2018, on year-on-year basis. The increase in the year-on-year inflation in May 2018 was mainly driven by upward price revisions to the items in the Non-food category. The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis decreased from 6.1 per cent in April 2018 to 5.7 per cent in May 2018.
When monthly change is considered, the NCPI increased from 122.9 index points in April 2018 to 124.3 index points in May 2018 largely due to the increase in prices of the items in the Non-food category, particularly that of Transport (upward fuel price revision); Housing Water Electricity Gas and Other Fuels (Kerosene Oil, LP Gas); and Health sub-categories. Meanwhile, price increases were observed in the items in the Food category such as vegetables, fresh fish, big onions, limes and potatoes owing to seasonal factors.

Sri Lanka Purchasing Managers’ Index - May 2018

The Manufacturing Sector PMI recovered in May following the seasonal contraction observed in the previous month and recorded an index value of 60.6 in May with an increase of 15.1 index points from April. The recovery of PMI was largely attributable to the significant increase in production to cater both the new orders received during the month and the uncompleted orders received in April due to the new year holidays, especially in the manufacturing of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and other related products. New Orders, Stock of Purchases and Employment sub-indices also increased during the month. However, the Employment sub-index in manufacturing of textiles, wearing apparel, leather and other related products still remains in the negative territory. Meanwhile, the Suppliers’ Delivery Time sub-index marginally lengthened due to the adverse weather conditions prevailed in the latter part of the month.

The International Monetary Fund Releases the Fifth Tranche of US dollars 252 million under the Extended Fund Facility

The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) concluded the 2018 Article IV consultation with Sri Lanka and completed the fourth review of the three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF), approving the disbursement of the fifth tranche amounting to SDR 177.774 million (approximately US dollars 252 million). The EFF aims at supporting the Balance of Payments and the broad economic reform agenda of the government.
The IMF acknowledged the progress made by the authorities to stabilise the economy and support growth through an improved policy mix of fiscal consolidation, prudent monetary policy and structural reforms. The IMF commended the authorities for achieving major milestones in terms of structural reforms, including the launch of the new Inland Revenue Act, automatic fuel pricing formula and the Central Bank of Sri Lanka’s Roadmap for flexible inflation targeting, while stressing the importance of sustaining the reform momentum going forward. 

External Sector Performance - March 2018

The external sector displayed a mixed performance in March 2018.  Even though expenditure on imports continued to increase, exports which peaked to historic high levels in March 2018, contributed to a lower trade deficit vis-a-vis the previous two months of the year. Earnings from tourism increased notably in March 2018 continuing the positive trend observed since January 2018. Workers’ remittances rose during the month reversing the decline recorded in February 2018. Meanwhile, the financial account of the Balance of Payments (BOP) experienced some outflows in March, particularly with the withdrawal of foreign investments from the government securities market and the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE).  The level of gross official reserves of the country remained at a healthy level.

Deshamanya Amarananda Somasiri Jayawardena, Former Governor of the Central Bank, Passes Away

The Central Bank, with deep sorrow, wishes to announce the demise of Deshamanya Amarananda Somasiri Jayawardena, former Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka. He passed away at the age of 82, on the 29th of May, 2018.

Deshamanya A S Jayawardena was the tenth Governor, functioning in this position from November 1995 to June 2004. He joined the Central Bank in 1958 and served in the Secretariat, Establishments and Economic Research Departments before being appointed as Director of Economic Research (1977 – 1980).

He served as Assistant to the Governor and Executive Director during 1980-1981 and also functioned as the Alternate Executive Director of the IMF from 1981 -1986. He served as Deputy Governor from 1986 – 1989 and was the Senior Deputy Governor from 1993 - 1994.

External Debt and Reserves - Need to identify not only borrowings but also the debt repayments in analyzing how gross official reserves were utilized

A misleading news item has been disseminated in relation to Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves and external debt servicing.

The contents of the news item portray a misleading picture of the country’s external position. While stating that around USD 8.9 billion of borrowings by the government were absorbed to Central Bank reserves during 2015-2018, the article provides no consideration on the significant debt repayment effected by utilization of reserves during the period, which the Central Bank is obligated to as the official debt manager of the government.  

Since 2015, the government has serviced external debt of around US$ 7.5 bn as capital and interest payments utilizing external reserves.  Simply put, gross official reserves as at end 2014 amounted to US$ 8.2 bn. If there were no further borrowings or non-borrowed increase of reserves, the external debt servicing of around US$ 7.5 bn would have resulted in gross official reserves depleting to US$ 0.7 bn by now. 

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