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External Sector Performance – August 2022

Import expenditure declined in August 2022, on a year-on-year basis, for the sixth consecutive month, despite recording an increase compared to July 2022. Considering the need to prioritise essential imports amidst shortage of forex liquidity, the Government tightened import restriction measures on non urgent imports during August 2022, which, however, were partially relaxed in September 2022. Meanwhile earnings from exports increased in August 2022 continuing its growth trend observed since April 2022. As a result, the merchandise trade deficit recorded a notable contraction in August 2022 compared to the previous year. Workers’ remittances increased in August 2022, compared to July 2022. Earnings from tourism recorded an increase in August 2022, compared to the same period in 2021. During August 2022, foreign investments in the government securities market recorded a marginal net outflow, while that in the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) recorded a marginal net inflow.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka maintains policy interest rates at their current levels

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 05 October 2022, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 14.50 per cent and 15.50 per cent, respectively. In arriving at this decision, the Board considered the latest macroeconomic conditions, expected developments and macroeconomic projections. The Board noted the tight monetary conditions prevailing at present, the decelerating pace of inflation, and the envisaged disinflation path in the near term supported by both domestic and global factors. The Board was of the view that the monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight to achieve the envisaged disinflation path in the period ahead. The contractionary fiscal policies would complement the effects of tight monetary policy measures already in place, helping to mitigate any build-up of aggregate demand pressures, thereby anchoring inflation expectations and bringing down headline inflation to the targeted level of 4-6 per cent over the medium term.

CCPI based headline inflation recorded at 69.8% on year-on-year basis in September 2022

Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2013=100) increased to 69.8% in September 2022 from 64.3% in August 2022. This increase in Y-o-Y inflation was driven by the monthly increases of both Food and Non-Food categories. Accordingly, Food inflation (Y-o-Y) increased to 94.9% in September 2022 from 93.7% in August 2022, while Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) increased to 57.6% in September 2022 from 50.2% in August 2022.

Central Bank of Sri Lanka Co-hosted the 3rd CBSL-ADBI-APAEA Online Macroeconomics Conference

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka co-hosted the CBSL-ADBI-APAEA Online Macroeconomics Conference for the third consecutive year, in collaboration with the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and the Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association (APAEA), on 23 September 2022. This year’s theme remained same as the previous year; ‘Emerging Issues for Macroeconomic Stability’.

NCPI based headline inflation recorded at 70.2% on year-on-year basis in August 2022

Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100) increased to 70.2% inAugust 2022 from 66.7% in July 2022. This increase in Y-o-Y inflation was mainly driven by the monthly increases of both Food and Non-Food categories. Accordingly, Food inflation (Y-o-Y) increased to 84.6% in August 2022 from 82.5% in July 2022, while Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) increased to 57.1% in August 2022 from 52.4% in July 2022.

Monthly change of NCPI recorded at 2.45% in August 2022 due to price increases observed in items of both Food and Non-Food categories which were 0.91% and 1.53%, respectively. Accordingly, within the Food category, increases were observed in prices of fresh fish, eggs, biscuits and fruits. However, prices of dhal, rice and sugar decreased during the month. Further, within the Non-Food category, increases were observed in prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels (Electricity, Materials for maintenance and Kerosene), Furnishing, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance (Washing soap) and Miscellaneous Goods and Services subcategories during the month. It is noteworthy that Transport (Petrol, Diesel and Bus fare) subcategory recorded a decline during the month.

Sri Lanka Purchasing Managers’ Index - August 2022

Purchasing Managers Indices for both Manufacturing and Services activities increased in August 2022.

Manufacturing PMI recorded an index value of 49.6 in August 2022, up from July, yet at slightly below the neutral threshold level.

Services PMI returned to the growth territory in August 2022, recording an index value of 51.7 after declining for four consecutive months.

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