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SL Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) – March 2023

Purchasing Managers’ Indices for both Manufacturing and Services activities returned to positive territory in March 2023.

Manufacturing PMI turned positive in March 2023, after nine consecutive survey rounds, recording an index value of 51.4. This month-on-month expansion was driven by the increase in New Orders and Production sub-indices mainly due to the seasonal demand. However, Employment, Stock of Purchases and Suppliers' Delivery Time sub-indices remained below the neutral threshold. 

The Central Bank Clarifies Misreporting of the Views Expressed by Governor of the Central Bank on the Economic Outlook

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka wishes to clarify a misreporting of the views expressed by Governor of the Central Bank following a recent media engagement. Such media reports claim that ‘Governor anticipates a difficult period ahead in the economy’. This is a gross misinterpretation of the views expressed by Governor, taken out of the context of the discussion on challenges that the economy could face in the period ahead if the envisaged reforms are delayed or derailed. Governor viewed that the difficult and painful policy measures implemented by the Government and the Central Bank thus far have helped to stabilise the economic conditions, compared to the unprecedented socio-economic tensions witnessed in 2022. Despite these reforms have resulted in significant adjustment costs, causing hardship to the people and businesses in the near term, they were necessary to restore stability, which will accrue benefits to the people and businesses in the period ahead.

Monetary Policy Review - No. 3 of 2023

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 04 April 2023, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 15.50 per cent and 16.50 per cent, respectively. Having considered the recent and expected economic developments, and macroeconomic projections on domestic and global fronts, the Board viewed that the maintenance of the prevailing tight monetary policy stance is necessary to ensure that monetary conditions remain sufficiently tight to facilitate the continuation of the ongoing disinflation process amidst the improvements in market sentiments following the finalisation of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the downward shift in elevated market interest rates reflecting the falling risk premia.

CCPI based headline inflation eased further in March 2023

Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100)  decreased to 50.3% in March 2023 from 50.6% in February 2023. The decline in the headline inflation is broadly in line with the disinflation path envisaged by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in 2023.

The Food inflation (Y-o-Y) decreased to 47.6% in March 2023 from 54.4% in February 2023, whereas the Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) increased to 51.7% in March 2023 from 48.8% in February 2023. Monthly change of CCPI recorded at 2.92% in March 2023 due to price increases observed in items of Non-Food category, which was 3.71%. However, the Food category recorded a monthly decline of 0.79%. The core inflation (Y-o-Y), which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy, decreased to 39.1% in March 2023 from 43.6% in February 2023.

External Sector Performance - February 2023

Import expenditure declined notably, compared to the reduction in export earnings in February 2023 (y-o-y), resulting into sizeable moderation in the trade deficit.

Workers’ remittances and earnings from tourism continued to improve in February 2023.

Gross official reserves strengthened further by end February 2023, compared to recent months.

The exchange rate appreciated notably in March 2023 following the greater flexibility that was allowed in the determination of the exchange rate.

The Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and foreign investment in the government securities market recorded net inflows during February 2023.

The Extended Fund Facility (EFF) from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) of US dollars 3 billion was approved and the first tranche was disbursed in March 2023.

Statement by Governor and Secretary to the Treasury after the virtual Investor Presentation held on 30.03.2023

On 20th March 2023, the IMF Board approved Sri Lanka's IMF program, unlocking up to $7bn in funding from the IMF and other IFIs. The IMF program provides a clear roadmap in terms of policy implementation and will stabilize the economy of Sri Lanka and allow the country to regain its growth potential and address its economic vulnerabilities. 

Today, we held an investor presentation in order to explain the current macroeconomic situation in Sri Lanka, and outline the key pillars and objectives of the IMF program as well as the next steps with regard to the engagement with creditors. 

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