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CCPI based headline inflation recorded another sharp decline in June 2023

Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100) decreased to 12.0% in June 2023 from 25.2% in May 2023. The decline in the headline inflation is broadly in line with the disinflation path envisaged by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in April 2023.

After two years, the Food inflation (Y-o-Y) decreased to a single digit level of 4.1% in June 2023 from 21.5% in May 2023, while the Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) decreased further to 16.2% in June 2023 from 27.0% in May 2023. Monthly change of CCPI recorded at 0.02% in June 2023 and this marginal change was due to the netting off of price increases observed in the items of Food category, which was 0.41% by the price decreases observed in the Non-Food category, which was -0.39%. The core inflation (Y-o-Y), which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy, decreased to 9.8% in June 2023 from 20.3% in May 2023.

External Sector Performance - May 2023

The cumulative trade deficit remained modest so far during 2023. The trade deficit in May 2023 widened, compared to a year ago, for the first time since February 2022.

Workers’ remittances in May 2023 recorded higher than that of the previous month. Earnings from tourism recorded a robust growth despite being lower than April 2023 due to seasonal affects.

There was a notable appreciation of the exchange rate by 8.8 per cent during May 2023.

Foreign investments in the government securities market recorded a notable net inflow during May 2023.

The receipt of USD 350 million from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) as well as substantial net purchases of forex by the Central Bank from the market, resulted in the gross official reserve level (GOR) increasing to about US dollars 3.5 billion by end May, compared to US dollars 2.8 billion as at end April 2023.

Sri Lanka Purchasing Managers’ Index - May 2023

In May 2023, Purchasing Managers Indices indicated an expansion in Services activities and a contraction in Manufacturing activities.

Manufacturing PMI declined in May 2023, yet at a slower rate, indicating a month-on-month contraction in manufacturing activities. Accordingly, Manufacturing PMI recorded an index value of 46.2 in May, driven by decreases recorded in all the sub-indices.

Services sector PMI returned to the growth territory recording an index value of 53.5 in May 2023 following the marginal drop observed in the previous month. This was led by the increases observed in New Businesses, Business Activities and Expectations for Activity. Nevertheless, Employment and Backlogs of Works continued to decrease during the month.

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka Relaxes its Monetary Policy Stance

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 31 May 2023, decided to reduce the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank by 250 basis points to 13.00 per cent and 14.00 per cent, respectively. The Board arrived at this decision with a view to easing monetary conditions in line with the faster than expected slowing of inflation, gradual dissipation of inflationary pressures and further anchoring of inflation expectations. The commencing of such monetary easing is expected to provide an impetus for the economy to rebound from the historic contraction of activity witnessed in 2022, while easing pressures in the financial markets.

External Sector Performance - April 2023

The trade deficit continued to remain modest in April 2023, compared to a year ago, though it recorded a month-on-month increase for the second consecutive month.

Workers’ remittances and earnings from tourism improved notably in April 2023, compared to the same period of the previous year.

The notable appreciation of the exchange rate that commenced in early March 2023, continued through April 2023.

Foreign investments in the government securities market recorded a notable net inflow during the month.

Gross official reserves improved further by end April 2023 with the net absorption of foreign exchange by the Central Bank from the domestic foreign exchange market.

CCPI based headline inflation continued to record a sharp decline in May 2023

Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100) decreased to 25.2% in May 2023 from 35.3% in April 2023. The decline in the headline inflation is broadly in line with the disinflation path envisaged by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in April 2023.

The Food inflation (Y-o-Y) decreased to 21.5% in May 2023 from 30.6% in April 2023, while the Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) decreased to 27.0% in May 2023 from 37.6% in April 2023. Monthly change of CCPI recorded at -0.02% in May 2023. This small monthly change was due to the netting off of price decreases observed in the items of Non-Food category, which was -0.56% by the price increases observed in the Food category, which was 0.53%. The core inflation (Y-o-Y), which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy, decreased to 20.3% in May 2023 from 27.8% in April 2023.

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