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Monetary Policy Review - No. 2 of 2017

As per the provisional estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), the Sri Lankan economy grew by 4.4 per cent in real terms during 2016 compared to the growth of 4.8 per cent in 2015. Within this annual growth, Industry related activities grew notably by 6.7 per cent driven by construction related activities, while Services related activities grew by 4.2 per cent mainly with the expansion of financial services, insurance and telecommunications. However, Agriculture related activities contracted by 4.2 per cent in 2016, impacted by supply side disruptions on account of floods in the second quarter and drought conditions during the final quarter of 2016. In spite of challenging external factors such as adverse weather conditions and global developments, an acceleration of growth was observed towards end 2016 with the last quarter of 2016 recording a growth of 5.3 per cent, partly supported by the base effect.

Inflation in February 2017

Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) (2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics, increased to 8.2 per cent in February 2017 from 6.5 per cent in January 2017, on year-on-year basis. Both Food and Non-food categories contributed towards the year-on-year inflation in February 2017. The low base that prevailed in February 2016 was the significant contributor to the sharp increase in year-on-year inflation in February 2017, in addition to the monthly price increase observed.

The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis increased to 5.1 per cent in February 2017 from 4.6 per cent in January 2017.

SL Purchasing Managers’ Index Survey - February 2017

The Manufacturing Sector PMI recorded an index value of 57.1 in February which is an increase of 0.9 index points compared to January 2017. This indicates that the manufacturing activities continued to expand in February 2017, largely attributable to increasing orders for the upcoming New Year season visible in New Orders sub-index. The Stock of Purchases subindex decreased in February as a result of the usage of stocks accumulated in January and the delays in delivering materials which is reflected by lengthening of Suppliers’ Delivery Time. The Employment sub-index also increased while Production sub-index remain unchanged. The less number of working days in February was highlighted as a constraint for increasing the production to meet the increase in new orders. Overall data points to an expansion where all the sub-indices are above the neutral 50.0 threshold. The expectations for activities indicated an improvement for the next three months.

Change of Metal/Alloy of Rupee 1 Coin and Rupees 5 Coin

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka hereby informs the general public that a new set of circulation coins of Rupee 1 and Rupees 5 will be issued to circulation after changing the metal/alloy from brass plated steel (gold colour) to stainless steel (silver colour).The edge lettering of the Rupees 5 coin has been removed in the new stainless steel coin. All other specifications including dimensions and designs of the above said coins remain same as of Rupee 1 coin and Rupees 5 coin that have been issued since 2005.

The said new coins will be legal tender in Sri Lanka for payments and will be a liability of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka while in circulation.

 

 

External Sector Performance – November 2016

Sri Lanka’s external sector recorded a modest performance during November 2016. The trade deficit widened as a result of higher import expenditure amidst a decline in export earnings, albeit marginally, during the month of November 2016. The significant increase in import expenditure in November 2016 was mainly due to the increase in expenditure on intermediate and investment goods. Earnings from tourism continued to record a healthy growth while workers’ remittances declined marginally during the month. The government securities market witnessed a net outflow in the month of November, while net inflows to the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE) and long term loan proceeds to the government supported the Balance of Payments (BOP) in November 2016.

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IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Sri Lanka to Discuss Progress of Economic Reform Program

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that, subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.

A staff team from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) led by Jaewoo Lee visited Colombo during February 21-March 7, 2017 to hold discussions on the second review of the Sri Lankan authorities’ economic program that is being supported by a three-year Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The program aims to support the authorities’ ambitious reform agenda to put public finances on a sustainable footing and create space for its social and development program. At the end of the visit Mr. Lee made the following statement:

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