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IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Sri Lanka to Discuss Progress of Economic Reform Program

End-of-Mission press releases include statements of IMF staff teams that convey preliminary findings after a visit to a country. The views expressed in this statement are those of the IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Board. Based on the preliminary findings of this mission, staff will prepare a report that,  subject to management approval, will be presented to the IMF's Executive Board for discussion and decision.

External Sector Performance - July 2017

Sri Lanka’s external sector continued to improve with increased exports and inflows to the financial account. However, the trade deficit widened in July 2017 compared to the corresponding month of 2016 due to higher import expenditure amid the increase in export earnings. Tourist earnings declined marginally in July while workers’ remittances increased, reversing its declining trend observed in the last four months. Inflows to the financial account continued to strengthen with net inflows to the government securities market, long term loans to the government, receipt of the third tranche of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), as well as continued portfolio investment inflows to the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE).

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Clarification by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka on Misleading News Reports on a Comment made by the Governor

The Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) has observed media reports highlighting adjustments to the Value-Added Tax (VAT) as the reason for increased inflation in 2017.

The CBSL wishes to clarify the Governor’s response to a query from the media on rising inflation in 2017 at the press conference held on the Monetary Policy Review No. 6 of 2017 at CBSL Head Office. In his response, the Governor stated that in addition to the adjustments made to the government tax structure, the adverse impact of weather related supply side disruptions, rising international commodity prices and the impact of the base contributed to the acceleration of inflation thus far during 2017. While the aforementioned factors lie beyond the control of the CBSL, it has maintained a tight monetary policy stance since early 2016 thereby containing demand-driven inflationary pressures and the buildup of adverse inflation expectations.

Monetary Policy Review - No. 6 of 2017

Considering developments and outlook in the domestic and international macroeconomic environment, the Monetary Board, at its meeting held on 25 September 2017, was of the view that the current monetary policy stance is appropriate and decided to maintain the policy interest rates of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka at their present levels.

Given below are the key factors that the Monetary Board considered in arriving at the decision.

Inflation in August 2017

Inflation, as measured by the change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI) (2013=100), which is compiled by the Department of Census and Statistics (DCS), increased to 7.9 per cent in August 2017 from 6.3 per cent in July 2017, on year-on-year basis. Both Food and Non-food categories contributed towards the year-on-year inflation in August 2017.

The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis increased from 6.2 per cent in July 2017 to 6.5 per cent in August 2017.

SL Purchasing Managers’ Index Survey - August 2017

The Manufacturing Sector PMI recorded 54.4 in August which is a slight increase of 0.1 index points compared to July 2017. The increase was driven by the increase in the Stock of purchases sub-index due to slow progress in production activities during the month and maintaining buffer stocks to cater to the already received new orders to be supplied in the future. Suppliers’ Delivery Time lengthened mainly due to some company specific constraints. The Employment sub-index contracted due to the difficulties in finding unskilled employees in the market to address high labour turnover, especially in the apparel sector. However, all the sub-indices apart from the Employment sub-index of PMI recorded values above the neutral 50.0 threshold signalling an overall expansion in August. Moreover, the Expectation for activities remain positive for the next three months.

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