Central Bank of Sri Lanka

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Road Map 2019 - Monetary and Financial Sector Policies for 2019 and Beyond

The Sri Lankan economy faced heightened challenges in 2018, emanating mainly from the global economic, financial and geo-political developments that adversely affected the external sector. There were also several domestic challenges. Political uncertainties, especially during the last quarter of the year, amplified challenges to overall macroeconomic stability. Sub-par economic growth continued in 2018 following subdued growth in 2017. Favourable weather conditions supported a rebound in the agriculture sector while the expansion in services activities has been broad-based.

Monetary Policy Review - No. 8 of 2018

The Monetary Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 27 December 2018, decided to maintain policy interest rates at their current levels. Accordingly, the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank will remain at 8.00 per cent and 9.00 per cent, respectively. The Board considered current and expected developments in the domestic economy and the domestic financial markets as well as the global economic environment, with the broad aim of stabilising inflation at mid single digit levels in the medium term to enable the economy to achieve its potential growth.

Inflation in November 2018

Headline inflation as measured by the yearon-year change in the National Consumer Price Index (NCPI, 2013=100) reversed its declining trend, recording 1.0 per cent in November 2018 from 0.1 per cent in October 2018. The increase observed in year-on-year inflation in November 2018 is mainly driven by the increase of the prices of Food items. Year-on-year Food inflation increased to -3.9 per cent in November 2018 from -6.6 per cent in October 2018. However, year-on-year Nonfood inflation decreased from 5.8 per cent in October 2018 to 5.2 per in November 2018.

The change in the NCPI measured on an annual average basis decreased to 2.7 per cent in November 2018 from 3.3 per cent in October 2018.

External Sector Performance - October 2018

Sri Lanka’s external sector continued to be under pressurein October 2018. The trade deficit widened significantly in October due to a higher growth in import expenditure alongside a marginal growth in exports. However, it is expected that the trend of increasing imports will reduce in the coming months with the lagged impact of recently introduced restrictions on certain import categories. Meanwhile, workers’ remittances recorded a healthy increase in October, while earnings from tourism registered a marginal growth. The financial account witnessed outflows of foreign investments from the government securities market and the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE).Foreign currency outflows together withimport expenditure exerted pressure on the domestic foreign exchange market. Consequently, the Sri Lanka rupee depreciated by 12.3 per cent in the first ten months of the year.

Sri Lanka Purchasing Managers’ Index - November 2018

The slowdown observed in manufacturing activities in November was mainly driven by the slowdown in new orders and production, especially in manufacturing of textiles, wearing apparels, leather and related activities. However, new orders and production in the manufacturing of food and beverages activities has improved with the Christmas season demand. Employment remains unchanged during the period due to the difficulties in recruiting additional employees, especially in manufacturing of furniture activities.

Meanwhile, overall Stock of purchases indicated a slowdown, mainly due to the subdued production of manufacturing of textiles, wearing apparels, leather and related products. Suppliers’ delivery time lengthened at a slower rate which is mainly driven by the reduction of lead time on demand, for supplies related to manufacturing of food and beverages activities to speed up their production.