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The Central Bank of Sri Lanka Maintains Policy Interest Rates at their Current Levels

The Monetary Policy Board of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, at its meeting held on 22 January 2024, decided to maintain the Standing Deposit Facility Rate (SDFR) and the Standing Lending Facility Rate (SLFR) of the Central Bank at their current levels of 9.00 per cent and 10.00 per cent, respectively. The Board arrived at this decision following a comprehensive assessment of domestic and international macroeconomic developments in order to maintain inflation at the targeted level of 5 per cent over the medium term, while enabling the economy to reach its potential. The Board took note of the effects of the recent developments in taxation and supply-side factors that are likely to pose upside pressures on inflation in the near term. However, the Board viewed that the impact of these developments would not materially change the medium-term inflation outlook. Further, the Board noted the space created by past monetary policy easing measures and the decline in the risk premia attached to government securities for further downward adjustment in market lending interest rates. The Board underscored that the envisaged benefit of further reduction in market lending interest rates needs to be adequately and swiftly passed on to the businesses and individuals by financial institutions.

IMF Staff Concludes Visit to Sri Lanka

An International Monetary Fund (IMF) mission team led by Mr. Peter Breuer visited Sri Lanka from January 11 to 19, 2024 to discuss recent macroeconomic developments and progress in implementing economic and financial policies under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) arrangement. At the end of the mission, the IMF issued the following press release on 19 January 2024, which can be accessed from the link below.

Sri Lanka Purchasing Managers’ Index (Manufacturing and Services) - December 2023

Both Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indices increased in December 2023

Manufacturing PMI recorded an index value of 52.7 in December 2023, indicating an expansion in manufacturing activities. This improvement was attributable to the increases observed in all the sub-indices except Employment.

Services sector PMI recorded an index value of 58.9 in December 2023 indicating an expansion in the services activities. This was led by the increases observed in New Businesses, Business Activities and Expectations for Activity.

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CCPI based headline inflation increased in December 2023

Headline inflation, as measured by the year-on-year (Y-o-Y) change in the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2021=100) increased to 4.0% in December2023 from 3.4% in November 2023. This increase in the headline inflation is mostly in line with the projections envisaged by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (CBSL) in November 2023. 

After five months of continuous deflation, the Food category recorded inflation (Y-o-Y) of 0.3% in December 2023 from 3.6% deflation (Y-o-Y) recorded in November 2023. Meanwhile, the Non-Food inflation (Y-o-Y) declined to 5.8% in December 2023 from 6.8% in November 2023. Monthly change of CCPI recorded 0.89% in December 2023 due to the combined effect of price increases of 1.16% observed in items of Food category and price decreases of 0.27% observed in the items of Non-Food category. The core inflation (Y-o-Y), which reflects the underlying inflation in the economy, decreased to 0.6% in December 2023 from 0.8% in November 2023

SL Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for Construction Industry – November 2023

Construction PMI recorded a Total Activity Index value of 44.3 in November 2023, indicating a contraction in construction activities compared to last month. The respondents mentioned that the low level of new projects and the decline in work related to ongoing projects, as they are in the final stages, hampered the activity levels. 

New Orders declined at a higher pace in November compared to the previous month. However, many respondents expect an acceleration in awarding of projects, especially government-funded projects, in the first half of the next year. Employment continued to contract as the companies tend to operate with minimum staff under the current industry situation. Further, Quantity of Purchases declined in line with the decrease in construction work. In the meantime, Suppliers’ Delivery Time remained lengthened during the month.

External Sector Performance – November 2023

The trade deficit narrowed in November 2023, compared to a year earlier and October 2023, as a combined impact of an improvement in exports and a compression in imports. Exports recorded a year-on-year growth for the first time since September 2022.

Monthly workers’ remittances continued to exceed US dollars 500 million and recorded a notable increase in November 2023 compared to the corresponding period in 2022.

Tourist arrivals soared during the festive season, contributing to high earnings from tourism.

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